ABOUT LINUX IN FUTURE

What Linux Will Look Like In 2012 ?

Our open source expert foresees the future of Linux: By 2012 the OS will have matured into three basic usage models. Web-based apps rule, virtualization is a breeze, and command-line hacking for basic system configuration is a thing of the past.

What will desktop Linux be like four years from now?

In the time it takes most college students to earn an undergraduate degree -- or party through their college savings -- Linux will continue to mature and evolve into an operating system that non-technical users can fully embrace.

The single biggest change you'll see is the way Linux evolves to meet the growing market of users who are not themselves Linux-savvy, but are looking for a low-cost alternative to Microsoft (or even the Mac). That alone will stimulate enormous changes across the board, but there are many other things coming down the pike in the next four years, all well worth looking forward to.

Over the course of the last four years, Linux has taken enormous strides in usability and breadth of adoption. Here's a speculative look forward at what Linux could be like a few years from now -- or, maybe we could say what Linux ought to be like.

For-free Versus For-pay
Expect to see a three-way split among different versions of Linux. Not different distributions per se, but three basic usage models:

1. For-pay: Ubuntu's in-store $20 boxes are a good example. For a nominal cost, you get professional support for Linux as well as licenses to use patent-restricted technologies (e.g., codecs for legal DVD playback).

Expect this to at least gain nominal momentum, especially if the cost is no more than an impulse buy and people understand that Ubuntu can non-destructively share a machine with Windows. Also expect at least one other Linux company to pick up on this model (openSUSE, for instance), and to have preloads on new systems incorporate such things if they don't already.

2. Free to use: This is the most common model right now -- a free distribution with support optional, and additional optional support for closed-source components: proprietary, binary-only device drivers.

3. Free/libre: These distributions contain no components with patent encumbrances or other issues, in any form. Distributions like gNewSense or Blag Linux already do this, and an upcoming version of Ubuntu (8.10 / "Intrepid Ibex," due in October) will also feature a wholly free installation option.

Windows XP Piracy Badgering Set To Begin

Microsoft this week plans to update the Windows Genuine Advantage anti-piracy mechanism for Windows XP Professional, which the software giant claims is the most oft-pirated version of Windows.

After the update, WGA notifications for XP will be the same as they are for Windows Vista service pack 1, said Alex Kochis, senior product manager in the Windows Genuine Advantage group, in a Tuesday blog post.

That means users whose copies of XP fail validation will see a black background the next time they log in. Although users will be free to switch to their background of choice, the black screen will return every 60 minutes until they validate their copy, and they'll also see a watermark with a logo that reads "Ask For Genuine Microsoft Software."

According to Kochis, this will make it easier for XP users to install and stay up to date with the latest release of WGA notifications. "Our research has clearly shown that customers value the ability of Windows to alert them when they may have software that is not genuine, but they also want the ability to stay up to date with the least effort required on their part," he wrote.

WGA is designed to combat piracy by installing software on users' PCs that periodically checks to see if their version of Windows is authentic before allowing them to download updates. However, WGA has been a source of frustration for many users since it was launched in 2005, due to several incidents in which genuine users have been mistakenly identified as pirates.

Prior to the release of Vista service pack 1, Vista copies that failed WGA validation would enter a reduced functionality mode in which certain features were disabled, but Microsoft changed to the black screen nagging approach when it released Vista SP1.